County has grown the most in the past five years
Article by Valerie MacDonald
Statistics Canada statement on population numbers released earlier this month show Northumberland County’s population grew at its fastest rate during the past five years, Jamie Cook of Watson & Associates told members of the Northumberland Economic Development and Planning Committee.
The Watson & Associates presentation suggested expanding the Municipality of Port Hope by 131 gross hectares to accommodate what is described as “community area land needs” that will be necessary by the year 2051 because of this growth.
The number of people in the County now is 4,000 more than the 85,598 listed in the 2016 census.
“Net migration is the key driver in Northumberland,” Cook said, due to immigration and the consequence of the pandemic when people moved from urban to more rural areas like this county.
This increase in population is expected to continue as employment is predicted to get “much stronger,” he said. The forecast is for an increase of 400 jobs per year in Northumberland compared to the historical growth of 100 jobs yearly.
The details of the County’s future growth estimates come from the Municipal Comprehensive Review process, which is part of the operating plan review that is currently underway. It was recently the subject of a public meeting, the County’s planning manager Dwayne Campbell told committee members.
By 2051, Northumberland County’s population is forecast to be 122,000 with 44,000 employed within its boundaries.
Graphics and graphs were part of Cook’s presentation including one showing the urban settlement areas and land uses within Northumberland. Another shows the “doubling of the historical amount of population growth per year between the period of 2016 and 2015” while job growth is expected to quadruple in the same period.
During this period, there will be an increase in the oldest layer of citizens in the county with forecasts of their numbers per the general population increasing to 21 by 2040 and 22 percent by 2051. That is up from about 14% of people 75 and over right now.
The next largest group to increase their numbers will be those up to age 19 at 17% for the period 2040-2051….which is what currently exists.
Because of this growth, by 2051, it is forecasted there will need to be 52,820 housing units in the county compared to about 37,780 now. As well, there is a call for an intensification of housing density to meet provincial guidelines, councillors were told.
As one would anticipate, 60% of population growth will occur in Cobourg and Port Hope with 15% in rural areas, 13% in Brighton, and 4% per town: Colborne, Hastings and Campbellford.
A similar pattern follows for employment with slight variations in the smaller towns, with primarily more jobs going to Campbellford (7%).
In order to accommodate this forecasted increased in employment by 2051, Nick McDonald of Watson & Associates, said an additional 145 hectares of land is needed in Cobourg, Port Hope and Campbellford.
According to the presentation: “An urban boundary expansion of 131 hectares is recommended within the Municipality of Port Hope to accommodate identified Community Area land needs to the year 2051.” (This would be to the north and west, McDonald clarified when asked.)
Recently, an agreement for Port Hope to buy Wesleyville land from Hydro One was quashed by the Provincial Government.
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